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Abraham Accords

🕊️ What Are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords are a series of diplomatic agreements between Israel and several Arab states, brokered by the United States in 2020. They mark a historic normalization of relations between Israel and countries that previously had no formal diplomatic ties with it.

🧭 Key Signatories & Timeline

Signed in 2020:

  1. United Arab Emirates (UAE) – August 13, 2020 (announced); September 15, 2020 (signed at the White House)
  2. Bahrain – September 15, 2020
  3. Sudan – October 23, 2020 (normalization agreed upon; formalities ongoing)
  4. Morocco – December 10, 2020

Prior Treaties:

  • Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) already had peace treaties with Israel, but the Abraham Accords aimed to go beyond those in scope and warmth.

⚙️ How the Accords Came About

  • Brokered by: Trump administration, especially Jared Kushner and Avi Berkowitz.
  • Catalysts:
    • Shared concerns over Iran’s regional influence.
    • U.S. pressure/incentives (e.g., F-35 sales to UAE, U.S. recognition of Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara).
    • UAE and others claimed the deal halted Israel’s planned annexation of parts of the West Bank.
  • Executed under secrecy: Fewer than 50 people in the U.S., Israel, and the UAE knew in advance.

🧩 Strategic and Practical Components

1. Diplomatic Recognition

  • Exchange of embassies and ambassadors.
  • Establishment of direct communication between governments.

2. Economic & Commercial Agreements

  • Free trade agreements (e.g., Israel-UAE).
  • Double taxation avoidance treaties.
  • Cooperation in agriculture, technology, water, renewable energy, fintech.

3. Security Cooperation

  • Intelligence sharing, joint defense concerns (especially vis-à-vis Iran and radical Islamist groups).
  • Establishment of common strategic interests in the Gulf and North Africa.

4. People-to-People Ties

  • Direct flights, tourism, educational exchanges.
  • Warm peace vs. the “cold peace” with Egypt/Jordan.

🌍 Impacts & Significance

Regional

  • Broke a long-standing Arab League consensus to withhold normalization with Israel until a Palestinian state is established.
  • Created new alliances against Iranian expansion.
  • Served as a diplomatic win for Gulf countries seeking international prestige and tech/economic benefits.

For Israel

  • Opened new economic markets.
  • Enhanced geopolitical legitimacy in the region.
  • Undermined the idea that Israel must resolve the Palestinian conflict before achieving broader Arab acceptance.

For the U.S.

  • Strengthened ties between allies without direct military involvement.
  • Gave the Trump administration a signature foreign policy achievement.
  • Created a new axis of U.S.-aligned powers in the Middle East.

📉 Challenges and Criticisms

  • Palestinian Authority condemned the Accords as a betrayal.
  • Some Arab and Muslim populations remain opposed, especially post-October 7, 2023.
  • Momentum slowed under the Biden administration due to rebranding hesitations and shifting focus.
  • Saudi normalization, the “crown jewel,” was derailed by the Gaza war and dramatic shifts in public opinion.

📊 Economic Results So Far

  • Israel-UAE trade reached over $3.2 billion in 2023 despite the ongoing Gaza war.
  • Israel-Morocco trade grew by 40%, and Israel-Bahrain trade surged by 900% in one year.
  • Flights, tourism, and joint ventures in tech/agriculture continue to increase.

🛣️ What’s Next?

  • Saudi Arabia: Still seen as the biggest domino; normalization hinges on a resolution in Gaza and strong U.S. incentives.
  • Africa: Growing Israeli interest in normalizing ties and expanding Abraham Accords-style cooperation with more African nations.
  • Resilience Test: Despite war and regional backlash, Abraham Accords countries have largely not cut ties, indicating strategic durability.

Ask Khiv Anything podcast: Episode 8

Here’s a summary of the main ideas from the episode featuring Shir Fine-Gman on the Ask Khiv Anything podcast, Episode 8:

1. Abraham Accords as a Strategic Breakthrough

  • Shir Fine-Gman, former head of regional affairs at Israel’s National Security Council, played a central role in coordinating the Abraham Accords.
  • The Accords marked a significant diplomatic shift, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan).
  • They were considered the most positive and momentous regional development in decades, especially in contrast to conflict-driven news.
  • The National Security Council served as the central hub, coordinating military, economic, diplomatic, and logistical efforts for normalization.

2. Bureaucratic and Political Challenges

  • The Abraham Accords were developed rapidly and in secrecy, with only about 40 people across the U.S., Israel, and UAE aware prior to the announcement.
  • The process had to overcome COVID-19 restrictions, U.S. election timing, and bureaucratic inertia.
  • Momentum stalled when the Biden administration took office, due in part to its reluctance to endorse Trump-era achievements.
  • UAE normalization had been possible as early as 2019 but was delayed due to Israeli elections and COVID.

3. Implementation and Sustainability

  • Unlike past “cold peace” treaties with Jordan and Egypt, the Abraham Accords aimed for “warm peace”: bottom-up, people-to-people and business-to-business relationships.
  • Infrastructure agreements (visa waivers, double taxation, free trade, direct flights) were quickly established with the UAE.
  • Trade between Israel and UAE reached over $3.2 billion by 2024, even during the Gaza war.
  • Flights and relations mostly continued even during the October 7 conflict, showing resilience.

4. State of Relations with Bahrain and Morocco

  • Bahrain: Slower to develop, but growing. Trade reached $108 million.
  • Morocco: Cultural and historic ties with Israel (800,000 Israelis of Moroccan descent). Potential exists, especially in agriculture, water tech, and renewable energy.
  • Despite a lower GDP, Morocco’s purchasing power is strong and offers a strategic partnership opportunity.

5. Saudi Normalization: The Crown Jewel

  • Saudi Arabia was close to normalization before Biden took office, which paused progress.
  • Crown Prince MBS has been preparing the public gradually; normalization would need a substantial concession and public legitimacy.
  • October 7 and the Gaza war drastically shifted Saudi public opinion: support for Hamas rose, support for normalization plummeted.
  • Nevertheless, long-term interests and strategic concerns (like Iran and Turkey’s rise) may revive the effort.

6. Gaza Strategy and Political Obstacles

  • Israel lacks a clear strategy for the “day after” in Gaza, partly due to internal political divisions.
  • Hostage recovery remains central, and constraints like international legitimacy and U.S. support shape options.
  • Some argue Netanyahu avoided pre-October 7 action against Hamas due to fears of enabling a Palestinian state—a claim supported by leaked statements but contested.
  • Any resolution and normalization with Saudi Arabia will require solving or stabilizing Gaza.

7. Optimism Tempered by Institutional Decline

  • Shir is optimistic about normalization and regional cooperation but worried about Israel’s bureaucratic talent drain.
  • Many skilled civil servants have left government due to political pressures and distrust in the “deep state.”
  • Sustained success depends not only on diplomacy but also on restoring institutional capacity and trust.