DESCRIPTION

THE #2 WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER Based on a career of making high-stakes, split-second decisions as a U.S. fighter pilot, The Art of Clear Thinking teaches readers to apply Hasard Lee’s combat-tested techniques in everyday life. The training to become a fighter pilot is among the most competitive and difficult in the world with fewer than one in a thousand succeeding. Pushing a cutting-edge jet to its limits at over 1,000 mph means that every split-second decision can have catastrophic consequences. This extreme environment has forged a group of warriors who for the last fifty years have been considered at the apex of decision-making theory and practice. In The Art of Clear Thinking, Hasard Lee distills what he’s learned during his career flying some of the Air Force’s most advanced aircraft. With gripping firsthand accounts from his time as a fighter pilot and fascinating turning points throughout history, Hasard reveals powerful decision-making principles that can be used in business and in life, including: • HOW TO LEARN BETTER AND FASTER • CULTIVATING MENTAL TOUGHNESS • DEVELOPING THE SKILLS TO QUICKLY ASSESS, CHOOSE, AND EXECUTE • AND MUCH, MUCH MORE Hasard has used and taught these techniques across the full spectrum of human endeavors and proven their effectiveness in both the cockpit and the boardroom. Those who have already benefited include CEO’s, astronauts, CIA agents, students, parents, and many others. The Art of Clear Thinking is a book that will change how you interact with the world around you.

My Summary

Main Ideas, Takeaways & Similarities

Questions

I. What is the problem?
A. How is this problem formulated?
B. Why is this problem important?
C. What is the history of this problem?
D. Which prominent personalities have been interested in this problem?

II. What solutions to the problem are there?
A. What are the conclusions reached?
B. By what argument(s) is the conclusion reached?
C. What facts or assumptions serve as premises?
D. When a prominent personality offers a solution, does he also argue for or against other prominent personalities? Does he raise objections to alternative solutions? Does he consider objections to his own solutions?

III. Evaluation
A. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the alternative formulations to the problem?
B. Has the importance or history of the problem ever been misrepresented?
C. Are the solutions logically related to the premises?
D. Are the facts true? Are the assumptions acceptable? Are the objections answerable?

AI Summary

Overview of The Art of Clear Thinking Framework

Hasard Lee organizes decision-making into a perpetual “ACE Helix” loop—Assess → Choose → Execute—built for fighter-pilots but broadly applicable to personal, business, and policy choices. Each turn of the helix refines judgment as circumstances evolve, so you are always cycling back to reassess rather than treating decisions as one-and-done events.

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1 Assess – Understand the Problem Before You Touch It

Goal: Form a fast, accurate mental model that isolates the handful of factors that truly drive outcomes.
Key techniques & tactics

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2 Choose – Select the Option with Highest Expected Value

Goal: Generate, compare, and commit to a course of action fast enough to matter yet grounded in logic rather than impulse.

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3 Execute – Turn Decision into Action Under Pressure

Goal: Protect cognitive bandwidth, keep emotions neutral, and stay decisive as reality fights back.

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Putting It All Together—Running the ACE Helix

1. Assess the changing situation continuously; watch for new power-law drivers or tipping points.
2. Choose again whenever fresh data shifts expected value—fast-forecast, sanity-check with the lessons web, and be willing to pivot.
3. Execute decisively; guard mental bandwidth and loop straight back to Assess.

Because each pass tightens feedback and builds intuition, the helix naturally accelerates expertise. Lee emphasizes that mastery isn’t flashy heroics; it’s disciplined iteration until superior judgment makes superior skill unnecessary.

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Key Take-Home Checklist for Clear Thinking

1. Start with a structured cross-check—don’t touch the problem until you’ve scanned the whole picture.
2. Ask “Where are the power laws?” and flag any tipping points.
3. Fast-forecast every serious choice—own a first-cut EV before discussion.
4. Iterate early when reversible; gather more intel when stakes are final.
5. Keep workload ≤ 90 % and dump or delegate tasks when you feel saturation.
6. Use focus training, reframing, and visualization daily so calm becomes your default operating mode.
7. Debrief every decision—log lessons, refine mental anchors, and feed the next loop.

Applied rigorously, the ACE Helix turns uncertainty from a threat into an ally, letting you think more clearly, decide faster, and act with confidence even in the fog of life’s dogfights.

Highlights

1 ASSESS (Page 19)

the very first step to making a decision: Assess the problem. (Page 33)

Instead of trying to multitask—something humans are notoriously bad at—we’ll spend anywhere from a fraction of a second to several seconds understanding each piece of information before moving on to the next one. The key is to not let yourself focus on just one data source at the expense of the rest—something we call getting sucked into the soda straw. When that happens, the pilot will quickly lose sight of the big picture and be unable to see how their actions fit the larger system they’re operating within. (Page 35)

2 POWER LAWS (Page 36)

“There’s no problem so bad you can’t make it worse.” (Page 39)

Many problems in life are nonlinear, whereby small changes can produce large outcomes. This often goes against our natural inclination. Decades of research in cognitive psychology show that our brains struggle to understand these types of relationships. They’re biased toward linear thinking—if you walk thirty steps, you are now thirty steps away from where you started; to walk twice as far, it’ll take twice as long. However, this thinking can often lead us astray. (Page 40)

To understand the world we live in, we need to understand these nonlinear relationships, which fall under the term power laws. Power laws govern systems where a change in one aspect can lead to a very large change in another, regardless of the starting conditions. While the definition may sound abstract, all of us have experience with power laws in our lives. When someone starts working out for the first time, they’ll initially see rapid progress as their strength quickly increases. However, their gains will eventually begin to slow despite putting in the same amount of effort. Even (Page 41)

with increased effort, their ability will eventually plateau. That’s why there’s such a narrow gap among Olympic athletes—everyone has optimized their bodies and techniques and are now fighting for fractional gains in performance. (Page 42)

There’s no way to tell whether Excite would have gone on to be as successful as Google if George had bought the students’ algorithm that day. However, passing on it is now considered one of the worst business decisions in history, one that eventually contributed to the company’s collapse. The root cause is that George didn’t understand power laws on a deep enough level and how they related to the problems he was facing. He didn’t see how the exponential growth of the internet would radically alter the system within which he was working. Hiring teams of journalists to review websites was a linear solution. This can work for books, movies, and products where there are very few compared to the overall user base. However, the internet gave anyone with a computer the ability to make a website within a few hours. This created a staggering growth in the number of websites. It’s understandable why he missed it—in 1997, the internet hadn’t hit the knee in the curve yet. It’s like the penny example on day ten —if you zoom in closely enough, the graph looks linear. However, within a few years, it grew dramatically. Today, if a company like Excite were to manually review websites, they would need well over one hundred thousand journalists. (Page 50)

There was, however, an even more fundamental power law that web portals of the late 1990s failed to account for. Pioneered by Robert Metcalfe, one of the early inventors of the Ethernet, the power law, known as Metcalfe’s Law, states that the value of a network grows exponentially with the total number of users. Think of a telephone—if you were the only one in the world who had one, it would be worthless. Even if a few people had one, it still wouldn’t provide much value. However, because the majority of people own phones, they’re incredibly valuable. The same is true of social media, dating apps, and even the internet itself. Web portals were a bottleneck that limited the number of connections that users could make. It was a linear solution that turned the internet into just a digital newspaper. Because the internet was so new, most users were happy with the status quo. Google’s search engine, however, removed the bottleneck and gave users access to the full power of the internet while still being controllable. This caused users to rapidly adopt Google’s search engine and resulted in the collapse of the web portals. The network effect is so powerful that today it can often account for 70 percent or more of the value of a digital company. (Page 51)

Being able to quickly identify a variable as adhering to a power law is critical during the assessment phase of the ACE Helix. It allows us to prioritize the key points that will most affect our decision. While there are hundreds of specific power laws throughout nearly every known field, we can simplify all of them down to just three generic types, allowing us to quickly prioritize our cross-check. (Page 52)

1. Exponential Growth (Page 52)
2. Diminishing Returns (Page 53)

Diminishing returns refers to a situation in which a smaller result is achieved for an increasing amount of resources and effort. A graph of diminishing returns quickly climbs but then tapers off. In some cases, it can eventually decrease and turn into negative returns. (Page 53)

3. Long Tail (Page 54)

The long-tail power law forms the basis for the economist Vilfredo Pareto’s famous 80–20 rule, where he noticed that 20 percent of the people in Italy owned 80 percent of the land. This idea, that a large percentage of the impact and results are generated by a small percentage of the work (Page 54)

In addition to power laws, there are often areas in a system where a small change in the input can disproportionately affect the output. These tipping points are critical moments when a minor change can make a major difference. (Page 55)

Tipping points can be found in every field and are often difficult for us to conceptualize because they represent extreme forms of nonlinear behavior. Even if we know there’s a tipping point, if we haven’t experienced it firsthand, then it can often be difficult to reconcile our past experiences with what we’ve been taught. (Page 55)

FINDING THEM (Page 57)

The first step is to increase our awareness of our linear bias. We are naturally programmed to view the world in a linear way. For much of history, mistakenly identifying a power law as a linear relationship wasn’t a big deal because the world wasn’t nearly as leveraged. Today, though, our decisions are greatly leveraged by technology. Each decision we make is amplified to produce a far greater outcome than we could produce on our own. (Page 57)

The next step to fighting linear bias is to graph the data. Raw numbers are abstract and difficult for humans to process. However, by graphing them, patterns often emerge. We can quickly turn discrete points of data into an understanding of the system. This can often help people to arrive at the correct solution on their own. (Page 57)

Another way to see if there’s a power law within a system is to use extreme data points. Any graph can look linear if zoomed in enough. However, by zooming out, it can quickly become evident that a relationship isn’t linear. (Page 58)

3 LEARNED LESSONS (Page 59)

APPLICATION (Page 71)

The Choose phase of the ACE Helix comes down to learning how the problems we’re facing connect to our end objectives. Humans are naturally good at learning; our superpower isn’t strength or speed or size. The history of our evolution is notable for two things: The first is the decline in our strength over the years, and the second is the growth in both the size and complexity of our brains. Today, our brains are nearly seven times larger than a similarly sized mammal’s. Even for primates, who have the most efficiently packaged brains, our brains are still three times larger than expected. In a sense, nature went all in on optimizing for our brains at the expense of everything else. (Page 71)

1. Concepts over facts (Page 72)

A robust mental framework that can accommodate many different scenarios is challenging and goes beyond just memorizing facts. There are many people who are smart, are well educated, and have memorized large amounts of information and numerous facts but who lack a broad understanding of the consequences of their decisions. Many of them are quite capable, but only for a narrow set of conditions. They lack the ability to think clearly, which is far more valuable in the real world than raw intelligence. Once the conditions they’re used to seeing change, sometimes even by a minute amount, they often make spectacularly wrong decisions. (Page 73)

One way of visualizing this method of learning is by picturing a tree. Trees begin with a trunk that gradually splits off into thinner and thinner branches. Eventually, at the end of the smallest branches are leaves. Any leaves that aren’t attached fall to the ground and are useless to the tree. In our learning model, the leaves were the facts, or bits of information, while the trunk and the branches represented the concepts. Every fact needed to be tied to a concept. We didn’t want students who were simply good at multiple choice tests; we wanted them to use the information to be the best pilots possible. (Page 74)

Objectives that were specific and measurable were best (Page 75)

2. Make the training learner-centered (Page 75)

Our approach to teaching them was threefold: First, we created a custom syllabus based on their experience. This made sure we were focusing our limited resources on areas that would have the greatest effect. Next, we reduced class sizes so that the instructors could spend more time on each student’s understanding of the concept being taught. Nothing is free in a resource-constrained environment, so we cut the total number of group events and instead relied on learning software for the more basic material. Finally, we grouped students together based on previous experience. Students who had flown the same type of aircraft often shared similar understanding, making it easier for the instructor to teach multiple students at once. (Page 76)

that created a dynamic learning conversational model environment. (Page 76)

Memorization, therefore, was deemphasized—it didn’t push students to make new connections and solve problems in creative ways. Rote memorization is a convergent learning model that gears people toward finding one “right” answer. It runs counter to the real world, where there’s rarely a single right answer but rather multiple good solutions with different costs and benefits that expand into vastly different second- and third-order effects. (Page 76)

3. Coaching is more effective than evaluating (Page 77)

The key to establishing this mentality was to treat a failure by the student as a failure by the system. Anytime a student failed to meet expectations, they would be coached on ways they could do better next time. In addition, there would be an instructors-only debrief on what the system and instructors could have done better. While this step may sound simple, in execution it needs to be continually reinforced by strong leaders. (Page 77)

4. Continually assess where technology can augment your training (Page 78)

Bridging the gap between the laptops and the high-end simulators were virtual reality systems to create an immersive flight environment. This allowed the students to practice maneuvers that required more finesse, such as flameout landings, which are difficult to replicate on a laptop screen. We also had instructors fly actual F-35 sorties with 360-degree cameras attached to the aircraft. These videos were then available to be viewed on virtual reality devices, giving the students examples of an experienced instructor performing the maneuver correctly. Overlays and text were then incorporated into the videos showing the instructor’s cross-check and decision-making throughout each phase of the maneuver to further enhance the students’ understanding. (Page 80)

5. Utilize an apprenticeship model (Page 80)

To facilitate the students’ understanding, the instructors would walk them through the way they would solve real-world tactical problems. This gave the students a chance to see how the instructors’ mental framework operated. For even simple problems, the instructors were often pulling from many concepts at once—such as the physics behind their aircraft’s mission systems, the psychology behind the enemy’s mindset, the best practices behind air combat tactics, and how to balance risk and reward for different phases of the mission. This further reinforced to the students that actionable knowledge is built through interweaved concepts, not just memorizing information. (Page 81)

6. Set aside time to debrief (Page 84)

4 FAST-FORECASTING (Page 89)

RISK (Page 93)

To find the expected value of a decision, we need to find the possible upside multiplied by the probability of it occurring, minus the downside multiplied by the probability of that occurring. By finding the difference, we can then see what the total benefit is. (Page 94)

In fast-forecasting, we are, in effect, building a mental model of the problem. Because our minds can only balance a fraction of the information that a computer can, this overcomes our natural inclination to include as many variables and data as possible. We’re forced to simplify. In almost every system, there are only a few variables that, due to strong power laws, drive the system—those are the ones to focus on. (Page 95)

The key to fast-forecasting is to not get overwhelmed by the details— logic and reason are what drive the technique. Precision is often the enemy of conceptual thinking. What we’re trying to do is bring to bear the mental framework that we’ve accumulated over our lifetimes to estimate the expected value of a decision. If we instead make the problem overly complex, we lose the ability to quickly manipulate the relevant information through the lens of our concepts, principles, heuristics, and facts. (Page 96)

For decisions that can be changed, it’s often best to decide early and adjust them as more information is learned. This can have the effect of resetting the diminishing-gain curve, which allows for a better assessment given the same amount of time and effort. This technique of failing fast and iterating can be very effective for small teams and for new fields that carry a high amount of uncertainty. On the other end of the spectrum, if the decision is important and irreversible, it makes sense to spend additional time gathering more information before choosing a course of action. However, even for those decisions, speed is still necessary to quickly eliminate nonviable options so that the weight of effort can be better focused on the remaining options. (Page 97)

The real world is complex, and decisions always come with some amount of uncertainty. Fast-forecasting is effective in this environment because it prioritizes accuracy over precision by integrating our hard-earned intuition into the solution. In team settings, this means there may be debates about the correct decisions to make. If that’s the case, the first step is to analyze how each party is generally looking at the problem. Numbers are always secondary to concepts, so logic and reason should be used to find the best methodology for solving the problem. Once that’s accomplished, it will significantly narrow down the options to choose from. Only then should we turn our focus to the numbers being inputted. (Page 99)

HUMANS AS DECISION-MAKERS (Page 107)

Over the course of a second, nearly twenty trillion impulses of information course through the neurons in our brains. By comparison, it takes a modern supercomputer forty minutes to replicate just one second of brain activity. Our brains merge memory and processing together into an extraordinarily effective package. What can take computers millions of steps to calculate can often be done in just a few hundred neuron transmissions. And through neuroplasticity, our brains can quickly rewire themselves, adapting to new and changing conditions. Amazingly, this is all done on just twenty watts of power. (Page 107)

thousands of experiences Humans are great at making decisions because of our ability to make sense of things—to weave a lifetime of knowledge in dozens of fields into an overlapping model of across understanding. We can think conceptually, critically, metaphorically, and imaginatively. We think with common sense, which even the most sophisticated artificial intelligence programs lack. (Page 108)

Credibility is an important element to account for when collaborating on a solution. The more competent someone is in a given field, the more they should trust their own intuition and understanding. The same holds true for a computer model—if the results have been validated successfully many times over, then it should be seen as a credible source. However, in both cases, a well-reasoned argument should supersede any perceived credibility. (Page 108)

One of the best tools to ensure we’re thinking critically and not blindly handing off our decision-making is to fast-forecast a solution on our own. When we’re forced, on the spot, to estimate the expected value of a decision, there’s nowhere to hide (Page 108)

As a leader, this can be one of the most effective tools for preventing groupthink and for facilitating critical thinking. By having each person involved in the decision-making process formulate their own fastforecast before hearing other solutions, people are forced to have conviction and stand behind their thought process. (Page 109)

No matter how difficult a decision is, you can, on your own, come up with the expected value of it. It’s a starting point that holds you accountable for understanding the relationships within a system. It can always be later adapted and refined. However, fast-forecasting a solution prevents us from giving up our most valuable resource: the ability to think critically. (Page 109)

5 CREATIVITY (Page 110)

1. Tasks and operations should be driven by the desired end states (Page 123)

An effects-based approach should start with the desired outcomes and work backward. This enables an integrated strategy throughout the planning and execution that supports the objectives. Often, large gains in effectiveness and efficiency can be realized by synchronizing operations. When looked at from the big picture, many processes are often redundant and can therefore be eliminated. This mentality runs counter to the way many organizations operate, where planning starts with a given set of resources and capabilities and then transitions to what can be accomplished with them. (Page 123)

Working backward, always with the desired outcome in mind, can help prevent the planning and execution from devolving into becoming excessively process-driven. When this happens, people become narrowly focused and lose sight of the big picture, reducing their flexibility and creativity. The larger the organization, the more people will be naturally drawn toward focusing on their narrow problem set, requiring a greater weight of effort by leadership on why the effects are being generated. (Page 123)

Starting at the end goal and working backward is also the path to individual mastery. Hard work and talent aren’t enough to become a top performer in a field. A clear and efficient plan for how to get there is necessary. By identifying the end state for a new skill you’re learning, you can then develop a plan that integrates into your current skill set and maximizes your potential. (Page 124)

2. Effects over tools (Page 124)

An effects-based approach focuses on the cause and effect of each action taken so that the end state can ultimately be achieved. The goal is to break down the requirement to the point where it’s not tied to a specific tool or process. The mistake that many people and organizations make is having a preconceived notion of what resources they need to use to solve a given problem. However, the tool or process used is not nearly as important as the effects it generates. (Page 124)

The lesson of effects over tools and processes is relevant to businesses as well. A product represents hundreds of concepts that need to be packaged together with varying trade-offs. Tightly fitting all the concepts together to create a great product is the challenge. From the beginning, there will be large, immovable constraints that need to be worked around. These constraints are often physics-based—there’s only so much you can do with materials and electronics. Other constraints will be easier to navigate; however, they’ll still come with varying levels of difficulty. By breaking requirements down into small, desired effects, we can then recombine them into a more efficient and effective way of solving a customer’s needs. (Page 125)

The same is true for everyday decisions. If you need a way to travel to work, the requirement shouldn’t simply be a car. Instead, it should be broken down into effects needed, such as commute time, cost, number of passengers, reliability, ease of use, and so on. Once we’ve broken down the problem into the effects needed, we can potentially find an innovative solution that’s more effective, such as a car service, rideshare, public transportation, truck, or any one of many solutions. While a car may ultimately be the best option, breaking down the requirement into effects needed gives us at least an opportunity to explore alternative solutions. (Page 125)

3. Find solutions that encompass the effects (Page 125)

How do we generate alternatives from which we can then assess the expected value? This ability is called creativity and is often treated as an innate talent. While there is some truth to that, there’s a framework that can significantly aid in finding innovative solutions. (Page 125)

However, once we’ve broken down the problem into the required effects, then we can find solutions that encompass as many of them as possible. This stage is a (Page 125)

difficult process for most people—there’s a tendency to quickly be drawn away from the ill-defined to the well-defined. (Page 126)

The first step to generating alternatives is to prioritize the required effects in numerical order. Once this is accomplished, solutions can be identified that satisfy only the most important effect—don’t worry about the rest. Many of these alternatives will, of course, be terrible when measured against all the required effects; however, this process helps to remove our strong bias toward immediately optimizing. This step is particularly effective in group settings where people are often afraid to fail. Developing solutions that meet all needed effects can be incredibly difficult; however, finding solutions for just one effect is substantially easier. This enables easy wins for people, leading to more engagement and more alternatives. Once solutions have been identified for the most important effect, the process should be repeated for subsequent effects. (Page 126)

The next step is to identify alternatives that satisfy just the top two needed effects. The overlapping requirements will dramatically pare down the number of viable solutions. This process should be repeated until you’re only left with alternatives that satisfy all the needed effects. (Page 126)

4. Uncertainty means you must be flexible (Page 127)

6 MENTAL TOUGHNESS (Page 136)

STRESS (Page 140)

Emotions significantly affect our decision-making ability. Biologically, we’ve evolved so that the rational part of our brains, known as (Page 140)

the neocortex, is intertwined with our limbic systems, responsible for emotion. This makes it easy for us to believe we’re behaving rationally, when, in fact, we’ve been hijacked by our emotions. (Page 141)

Humans have, on average, over sixty thousand thoughts a day, with upward of 85 percent of those thoughts spent on fear-based planning—that is, worrying about things that might happen in the future. (Page 141)

Analyzing stone-aged skeletons, archeologists estimate that 25 percent of all deaths back then occurred due to homicide—a staggering rate that’s 20,000 percent higher than today. If you were ostracized from those around you, there was little to no chance of you surviving on your own. This brutal existence led to us having a conservative mentality that is illadapted for the modern world. (Page 141)

When our brain’s amygdala senses danger, it activates stress and fear hormones, such as adrenaline and cortisol. As our bodies prepare for action, our liver releases glucose to provide additional energy for our muscles. Cortisol increases our blood sugar level while decreasing our immune system functioning. Our digestive system begins to shut down, which is what gives us a butterfly sensation, or knot, in our stomach. Our lungs begin working harder, preparing for an increase in oxygen demand, which causes fast, shallow breaths as well as dry mouth and difficulty swallowing. As the adrenaline enters our bloodstream, it causes our heartbeat to quicken while flushing our chest, neck, and face with a warm sensation. However, this increase in physical readiness comes at a cost. Our prefrontal cortex—the most advanced part of our brain that’s responsible for high-order cognitive abilities—begins to shut down. Working memory decreases, while attention switches from a thoughtful top-down approach based on prioritization to a bottom-up approach, where we easily become fixated on the most stimulating sensation. (Page 141)

In the debrief after the flight, we analyzed what had happened and found the root cause—he was angry with himself for making such a simple mistake. He was also afraid that he might have failed the flight, something he had never done before. The anger and fear had pushed him into a fightor-flight response, which began to shut down his prefrontal cortex and therefore his ability to make logical decisions. The mistake had, within seconds, transformed an above-average student into one who struggled with even basic aircraft control. (Page 143)

MENTAL TRAINING (Page 156)

Overall, it consisted of several pillars: (Page 158)

1. The first concept was that you don’t rise to the level of your expectations but rather fall to the level of your preparation. (Page 158)

While mental-toughness training is an important aspect of high performance, it’s not a substitute for learning the underlying skill. When flying, speaking, or playing a sport, no amount of mental-toughness training will make up for a lack of preparation in the execution. The training should be repeated until many of the skills and decisions become routine. (Page 158)

2. The next concept was focus-based training. (Page 159)

Worrying about step 857 when you’re only on step 15 is just a distraction. There are so many things that can go wrong and so much of it is out of our control that the best use of energy and time is focusing on the next decision while being flexible when things change. (Page 159)

quiet room using a type of meditation called focus-based training. (Page 159)

3. One of the most important skills to learn is how to calm the body and mind down during stressful events. (Page 160)

The best way to calm the body and mind down is to focus on breathing. (Page 160)

box breathing, whereby they would inhale for five seconds, hold for five seconds, exhale for five seconds, hold for five seconds, and continue doing this for five minutes. (Page 161)

triangle breathing, where they would inhale for five seconds, exhale for five seconds, and then hold for five seconds before repeating the process. (Page 161)

4. The next concept we incorporated was systematically building confidence. (Page 161)

Many of the students berated themselves and had a negative internal dialogue. Although this could be a powerful motivator, it also created self-doubt, which was detrimental to making high-stakes decisions. The solution was to couple the focus training with a technique called reframing. Anytime they noticed an undermining thought, they needed to identify it and then replace it with a counterexample from their past. It was easier said than done—it had to be practiced to the point where it became habitual. We started slowly, by just spending a few minutes each day dedicated toward practicing the technique. We then incorporated it into workouts, then simulator sessions, and finally while flying. (Page 162)

5. We also implemented a type of visualization training known as chair flying. (Page 162)

Students would close their eyes and mentally rehearse a flight while incorporating as many senses as possible. This allowed them to practice the concepts they had learned in the same way they would be using them during an actual flight. While it was a great tool for preparation, we also used it to build their confidence. (Page 162)

7 PRIORITIZE AND BE DECISIVE (Page 164)

OVERLORD (Page 170)

Immediately, the commanders cleared the room to pull back their forces. Most of the ships and landing craft received the message and began sailing back to their harbors and ocean rendezvous points. However, a large formation of 138 ships didn’t acknowledge the message and continued steaming toward Normandy. Radio operators desperately tried to contact them—if the ships didn’t immediately turn around, it would be a disaster. The secrecy of the invasion would be lost, and the ships, without protection, would be easy prey for the Germans. However, there was no response from the ships as they continued sailing toward the coastline. Finally, a British Walrus biplane was dispatched to make contact. After several passes and multiple attempts to reach the ships, the pilot, as a last resort, dropped a canister on the deck of the lead ship with a written note informing the captain of the postponement. The task force finally reversed course, narrowly averting disaster. (Page 176)

PRIORITIZE (Page 179)

Eisenhower made one of the best decisions in history, in large part because of his ability to prioritize. “What is important is seldom urgent and what is urgent is seldom important,” he would often say. Some tasks are urgent—if they’re not completed within a given time frame, the opportunity is gone. Others are important; the consequences of getting them right are high. By breaking down tasks according to their importance and urgency, he was able to develop a simple but effective framework for prioritizing his time and energy, allowing him to focus on making the best decision possible. (Page 180)

The technique can be visualized as a graph with importance on the vertical axis and urgency on the horizontal axis, forming four quadrants. In the upper-right corner, quadrant I, we have the urgent and important. These are the critical action items that need to be done immediately. As fighter pilots, we call these near rocks—things ahead that could potentially kill us. They’re the decisions that have to do with the safety and well-being of friendly forces, civilians, or ourselves. If the cockpit is filling with smoke, for instance, stopping the smoke takes precedence over everything else. When we’re planning missions, an airborne tanker falling out at the last minute requires an immediate decision as to whether there is enough fuel to complete the mission. For a software developer, it could be a security breach, or as a physician, it could be a patient having a heart attack. Energy and resources need to be immediately prioritized toward resolving the situation. However, it’s important to note that decisions and tasks are not evenly distributed across the quadrants. If properly planned, only a small percentage of tasks should fall into this quadrant. (Page 181)

In the upper-left quadrant, quadrant II, are important decisions and tasks but ones that aren’t urgent. These are essential to complete but don’t have an immediate deadline. For fighter pilots, they are called far rocks—things that will become a factor within the next several minutes. When mission planning, these are potential blockers that may impede overall mission success. For a health administrator, this would be ensuring that your facilities have the necessary resources to operate properly. For a civil engineer, this would be ensuring the projects are being completed safely. The key to quadrant II tasks is spending time to develop a road map and scheduling it early so that it doesn’t fall out of your cross-check and eventually turn into a quadrant I task. (Page 181)

Eisenhower’s solution for quadrant III tasks was to delegate them—if they needed to be done but they didn’t require his specific skill set, he would find someone else who could do them. (Page 182)

The most important underlying question when prioritizing is: What are we working toward? Without clear objectives or goals, it’s difficult to understand how everything fits together. If there isn’t a clear vision, our minds will default toward urgent tasks, whether they’re important or not. It’s only by staying disciplined toward that vision that we can ruthlessly cut tasks that don’t matter and maximize our impact. (Page 183)

DECISIVE (Page 185)

People often struggle at being decisive and taking action, particularly as the stakes are raised. They overthink the problem and tie up their mental bandwidth trying to make the perfect decision. Combined with the body’s physiological reaction to stress and pressure, this can lead to confusion and an inability to be decisive. (Page 185)

The solution is simple, but difficult to execute—they need to do less. Once you’re approaching 90 percent capacity, you need to smartly shed tasks. You may want to do more, others may want you to do more, but the best thing you can do is to understand your limitations and communicate them effectively. The lesson is not just for students, though. As you become more experienced as a fighter pilot, the novelty and excitement decrease and you become a more effective and lethal fighter pilot. However, for even experienced fighter pilots, there are edge cases where you can easily slip into being task saturated. One of them is when you hear friendly forces are under fire and you have an opportunity to help them. Every ounce of you wants to save them as quickly as possible. It’s important, though, to forgo the temptation to rush—stay at the 90 percent level, because those troops need a clear, decisive thinker overhead. (Page 186)

Another reason people are indecisive is because they struggle to remove all uncertainty from decisions. The best decision-makers meet uncertainty with a smile. There are very few opportunities in life where you can be 100 percent sure in your decision. While there are tools, such as fast-forecasting, to help remove some uncertainty, ultimately, we’re just trying to tip the odds of a positive outcome in our favor as much as possible. Every moment you’re not making a decision is a cost that you’re incurring in terms of time and mental energy. Eventually, that cost will overwhelm the benefit of waiting—that’s the point where it’s time to make a decision and move on. (Page 186)

Another way to look at decision-making is that we’re just trying to remove the choices that are clearly not optimal. (Page 186)

Imagine mapping a thousand different routes across your town to a specific destination; 99 percent of those routes are going to clearly be poor choices. Those are easy to eliminate, likely leaving you with a few good options. Based off your priorities—minimal time, minimal complexity, minimal fuel, best scenery —you can also eliminate some of the remaining choices, leaving you with just two or three options. This is the point where a lot of people get stuck. They continue to try to refine their assessment until they only have one option left. (Page 186)

Instead of continuing to deliberate, the solution is now simple: Go with any of the remaining viable options. Your energy and time are better spent on a different problem or remaining flexible for the likely adjustments you’ll have to make due to something unforeseen. If still in doubt, go with the simplest option—that will allow you to save mental energy while also minimizing the points of failure when carrying it out. (Page 187)

For life decisions, I found that when there are multiple seemingly equal choices, going with the riskiest viable option usually provides the greatest return in value. Most people hate uncertainty, particularly when it’s combined with risk. As humans, we are biologically programmed to overestimate risk. If you’re able to overcome that mental hurdle, it becomes easy to differentiate yourself and greatly increase your odds of success. (Page 187)