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The Cauldron - Cards

The Cauldron - Cards

Review cards for The Cauldron, kept apart so the main note stays readable. There are two card levels and a monthly essay rotation: 160 quick fact cards (who, when, where), 30 cause-and-effect cards organized by the seven recurring patterns, and 70 essay prompts with folded outlines.

Level 1 — Quick facts

flashcards/cauldron/facts

Part I — The Middle East of Abdulaziz, 1900–1906

When did Abdulhamid II take the throne, and what did he do with the new constitution?::31 August 1876. He signed a parliamentary constitution, then suspended it in February 1878 and ruled as an autocrat. pp. 44–45 (file not included in this release)

When were the Hamidian massacres, and roughly how many died?::1894; Kurdish Hamidian cavalry killed around 300,000 Armenians and 25,000 Assyrians. p. 49 (file not included in this release)

Who seized Kuwait in 1896, and how did he keep it?::Mubarak al-Sabah, who killed his half-brother; he played the Ottomans against Britain and ended up under British protection. pp. 55–56 (file not included in this release)

Whom did Kaiser Wilhelm II meet near Jerusalem in October 1898, and what did he promise the Muslim world?::Theodor Herzl (18 October); he promised friendship to “three hundred million Mohammedans.” pp. 57–58 (file not included in this release)

How did Abdulhamid answer Herzl’s offer to buy Palestine?::“Only our corpse can be divided.” p. 61 (file not included in this release)

Who sold Persia’s first oil concession in 1901, to whom, and when was oil struck?::Shah Mozaffar al-Din, to William Knox D’Arcy; oil was struck in Khuzestan in May 1908. p. 63 (file not included in this release) · p. 66 (file not included in this release)

When did Abdulaziz take Riyadh, and where did the raid start?::15 January 1902; the raid set out from Kuwait. p. 36 (file not included in this release)

What did Lord Curzon tell the Gulf sheikhs on his November 1903 cruise?::“Your independence will continue; the British government must remain supreme.” p. 53 (file not included in this release)

What did Britain and Russia agree about Persia in August 1907?::They divided Persia into spheres of influence, a year after its Constitutional Decree (August 1906). pp. 65–66 (file not included in this release)

What happened in the Ottoman Empire on 23 July 1908?::The Young Turk revolution: Abdulhamid restored the 1876 constitution. A failed counter-coup in April 1909 ended with his deposition. pp. 67–68 (file not included in this release)

Who called himself “First Jerusalemite, second Arab, third Ottoman”?::Yusuf Diya al-Khalidi, mayor of Jerusalem. p. 46 (file not included in this release)

What did the First Arab Congress (Paris, June 1913) ask for?::Reform within the Ottoman Empire, not independence. p. 69 (file not included in this release)

Part II — Holy World War, 1906–1917

When did Italy attack Ottoman Libya, and which future leaders fought there?::29 September 1911; Enver, Mustafa Kemal and Nuri al-Said fought alongside the Senussi. Libya was ceded in October 1912. pp. 74–75 (file not included in this release)

How many Rumeli Muslims were expelled in the First Balkan War (from October 1912)?::About 800,000. pp. 75–76 (file not included in this release)

What was the raid on the Sublime Porte?::On 23 January 1913 Enver’s men killed the war minister and forced out the grand vizier; after Shevket’s assassination (11 June 1913) the Three Pashas held power. p. 76 (file not included in this release)

Who were the Three Pashas, and what posts did they hold?::Talaat (interior, later grand vizier), Enver (war) and Jemal (navy, then viceroy in Syria). p. 76 (file not included in this release)

When did the Ottomans ally with Germany, and how did they enter the war?::A secret alliance on 1 August 1914; the fleet bombarded Russian ports on 29 October, and the sultan declared jihad on 11 November. pp. 77–78 (file not included in this release)

Who commanded the key Ottoman division at Gallipoli, and what did each side lose?::Mustafa Kemal (19th Division); about 60,000 dead on each side, April 1915 to January 1916. pp. 79–80 (file not included in this release)

What are the two key dates for the start of the Armenian genocide, and what toll do Talaat’s figures imply?::24 April 1915 (notables arrested) and 27 May 1915 (Deportation Law); about 1.1 million killed. pp. 79–80 (file not included in this release)

Which areas did McMahon’s October 1915 letter exclude from the Arab kingdom?::“Those portions of Syria to the west of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo”; Palestine is not named. p. 83 (file not included in this release)

Who wanted “to draw a line from the E in Acre to the last K in Kirkuk”?::Mark Sykes, to Asquith; the Sykes–Picot–Sazonov agreement (1916) was never implemented in that form. pp. 84–85 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Kut on 29 April 1916?::General Townshend surrendered 13,000 mostly Indian troops to Halil Pasha. Maude took Baghdad in March 1917. p. 86 (file not included in this release)

When did the Arab Revolt begin, and who launched it?::10 June 1916, by Sharif Hussein of Mecca. p. 85 (file not included in this release)

When was the Balfour Declaration issued, and when did Allenby enter Jerusalem?::2 November 1917; Allenby entered Jerusalem on 11 December 1917. pp. 92–93 (file not included in this release)

What did the Balfour Declaration promise, and what did it leave out?::A “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, without prejudice to “existing non-Jewish communities”; it did not name the Arab majority or promise a state. p. 92 (file not included in this release)

When did Faisal enter Damascus?::2 October 1918, after Allenby’s breakthrough at Megiddo in September. p. 94 (file not included in this release) · p. 96 (file not included in this release)

Part III — The Mandatories, 1917–1939

What sparked Egypt’s 1919 revolution, and what did it cost?::Britain exiled Saad Zaghlul in March 1919; about a thousand Egyptians were killed in two weeks. p. 101 (file not included in this release)

When did Mustafa Kemal land at Samsun?::19 May 1919; the Ankara assembly opened on 23 April 1920. p. 103 (file not included in this release)

Where and when did the French defeat Faisal’s Syrian army?::Maysalun, 24 July 1920, months after he was proclaimed king (8 March 1920). p. 104 (file not included in this release) · p. 110 (file not included in this release)

What did the San Remo conference (April 1920) decide?::Britain got Iraq and Palestine; France got Syria and Lebanon. Sèvres followed on 10 August. pp. 106–108 (file not included in this release)

What did crushing the 1920 Iraqi revolt cost Britain?::£40 million and 2,200 troops; over 8,000 Iraqis died. p. 112 (file not included in this release)

Who received which thrones at Churchill’s Cairo conference (March 1921)?::Faisal got Iraq (crowned 23 August 1921); Abdullah got Transjordan. p. 114 (file not included in this release) · p. 118 (file not included in this release)

When did Reza Khan seize power, and when was he crowned shah?::A coup in February 1921; crowned on 25 April 1926. p. 123 (file not included in this release) · p. 125 (file not included in this release)

What did the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne overturn, and what population exchange followed?::The Treaty of Sèvres; about 1.1 million Greeks and 380,000 Muslims were exchanged. pp. 120–121 (file not included in this release)

When did Kemal declare the Turkish Republic and abolish the caliphate?::October 1923 and March 1924. p. 122 (file not included in this release)

When was Saudi Arabia proclaimed, and whom did Abdulaziz defeat first?::23 September 1932; he broke the Ikhwan, his own religious warriors, at Sabila in 1929. p. 127 (file not included in this release)

Who founded the Muslim Brotherhood, when, and where?::Hassan al-Banna, a schoolteacher, in Ismailia in 1928. p. 133 (file not included in this release)

Where were the riots of August 1929 in Palestine, and what was the toll?::Jerusalem, Hebron and Safed; more than sixty Jews were killed, and over 400 were sheltered by Arab neighbours. pp. 133–134 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Simele after Iraqi independence (1932)?::Bakr Sidqi’s army massacred over 3,000 Assyrians (1933). pp. 135–136 (file not included in this release)

Part IV — The Second World War — The Battle of the Middle East, 1939–1945

How fast did Palestine’s Jewish population grow after Hitler took power?::174,000 arrived in 1933–36; the Jewish share rose from 9 per cent (1922) to 27 per cent (1935). p. 142 (file not included in this release)

Who was Izz al-Din al-Qassam, and when was he killed?::A jihadist imam killed near Jenin on 12 November 1935; Hamas later named its brigades after him. p. 142 (file not included in this release)

When did the Arab Revolt in Palestine begin?::With the Arab Higher Committee’s general strike on 25 April 1936. p. 144 (file not included in this release)

What did the Peel Commission propose in 1937, and who accepted it?::Partition; Ben-Gurion and Nashashibi accepted, while the mufti refused. pp. 144–145 (file not included in this release)

What did the 1936–39 Palestine revolt cost?::About 8,000 Palestinians, 200 Britons and 500 Jews killed. p. 146 (file not included in this release)

What did the MacDonald White Paper (17 March 1939) promise?::An independent Palestine within ten years, strict limits on Jewish immigration, and no Jewish state. p. 147 (file not included in this release)

What was the Farhud, and when did it happen?::A pogrom against Baghdad’s Jews in June 1941, after the Golden Square coup collapsed; about 200 were killed. pp. 149–150 (file not included in this release)

Why did Britain and the USSR invade Iran on 25 August 1941, and what followed?::To secure the oil and the supply route to the USSR; Reza Shah abdicated and Mohammad Reza became shah at twenty-two. p. 153 (file not included in this release)

When and where did the mufti meet Hitler?::Berlin, November 1941. p. 153 (file not included in this release)

What was the Abdeen Palace incident?::On 4 February 1942 British tanks forced King Farouk to appoint a Wafd government. p. 154 (file not included in this release)

Which Moroccan ruler refused Vichy’s antisemitic laws, and what did he say?::Sultan Mohammed V: “There are no Jews in Morocco. Just Moroccans.” pp. 155–156 (file not included in this release)

Where and when did Roosevelt meet Abdulaziz?::On USS Quincy, 14 February 1945, after Yalta. p. 158 (file not included in this release)

Part V — New States, 1945–1948

What happened at the King David Hotel in July 1946?::The Irgun bombed British headquarters in Jerusalem, killing ninety-one. pp. 163–164 (file not included in this release)

When did the UN vote for partition, and what did it propose for Jerusalem?::29 November 1947; Jerusalem would be an international corpus separatum. p. 165 (file not included in this release)

What did Abdullah secretly agree with Golda Meir before 1948?::That he would take the Arab areas of Palestine. p. 165 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Deir Yassin, and what followed four days later?::About 110 Arabs were killed on 9 April 1948; Arab fighters then killed seventy-eight on the Hadassah convoy. p. 170 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Kfar Etzion on 13 May 1948?::127 Jews were killed after surrendering. p. 171 (file not included in this release)

Which Arab states invaded on 15 May 1948?::Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, the day after Israel declared independence. p. 171 (file not included in this release)

Who killed Count Bernadotte, and when?::The Lehi group, on 17 September 1948. p. 172 (file not included in this release)

How was Mandate Palestine divided by the 1949 armistices?::Israel held 78 per cent; Jordan the West Bank and East Jerusalem; Egypt Gaza. p. 173 (file not included in this release)

How many Palestinians became refugees, and how many Jews left Arab countries afterwards?::About 750,000 Palestinians; about 800,000 Jews left Arab countries in the following decade. pp. 173–174 (file not included in this release)

Where and when was King Abdullah assassinated?::At al-Aqsa in Jerusalem, 20 July 1951, with his grandson Hussein beside him. p. 176 (file not included in this release)

Part VI — The Days of Nasser, 1948–1960

What did Iran’s Majlis do in 1951, and who became prime minister?::It nationalized Anglo-Iranian Oil; Mosaddegh became prime minister after Razmara’s assassination. p. 187 (file not included in this release)

When did the Free Officers seize power, and who was their public figurehead?::23 July 1952; General Mohamed Naguib. p. 183 (file not included in this release)

How, in Montefiore’s account, did Mosaddegh fall in August 1953?::The CIA plot failed and the shah fled to Rome; Zahedi and Kashani’s supporters then removed Mosaddegh. pp. 188–189 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Manshiya on 26 October 1954?::Nasser survived a shooting and shouted, “All of you are Gamal Abdel Nasser.” p. 191 (file not included in this release)

What two deals of 1955 broke the regional balance?::The Baghdad Pact (February) and Nasser’s Czech arms deal (September). p. 193 (file not included in this release)

When did Nasser nationalize the Suez Canal?::26 July 1956. p. 197 (file not included in this release)

What was the Protocol of Sèvres?::The secret October 1956 deal: Israel would invade Sinai, and Britain and France would intervene to “separate” the sides and seize the canal. pp. 197–198 (file not included in this release)

How many Jews were expelled from Egypt after Suez?::About 65,000, along with Greeks, Italians and others. p. 200 (file not included in this release)

Which two countries formed the United Arab Republic, and when?::Egypt and Syria, 1 February 1958. p. 201 (file not included in this release)

What happened in Baghdad on 14 July 1958?::Officers under Qasim and Arif overthrew the monarchy and killed Faisal II and his family; Nuri al-Said was lynched the next day. p. 204 (file not included in this release)

Which future dictator took part in a failed attempt to kill Qasim in October 1959?::Saddam Hussein. p. 206 (file not included in this release)

Part VII — The Reversal — The Crisis of Pan-Arabism, 1960–1967

When did Syria leave the UAR?::September 1961, after a coup by Syrian officers. p. 208 (file not included in this release)

When did de Gaulle concede Algerian independence, and what had the war cost?::March 1962; about a million Algerians, 25,000 French soldiers and 6,000 French civilians died, and 900,000 colons left. pp. 214–215 (file not included in this release)

How many Egyptian troops were in Yemen by 1964, and what did Nasser call the war?::About 40,000; “my Vietnam.” pp. 215–216 (file not included in this release)

What was the White Revolution?::The shah’s 1963 reform programme (land reform, votes for women, literacy, industry), approved by referendum on 26 January 1963 and opposed by Khomeini. p. 211 (file not included in this release)

What happened to Qasim on 8 February 1963?::He was shot in the Ramadan coup; the Baath also took power in Syria that March. p. 213 (file not included in this release)

Who founded Fatah, where and when?::Yasser Arafat and fellow exiles, in Kuwait, in 1959. p. 219 (file not included in this release)

When was the PLO created, and under whose patronage?::January 1964, under Nasser’s. p. 219 (file not included in this release)

What three steps did Nasser take in May 1967 that made war likely?::He moved troops into Sinai, demanded the UN force’s withdrawal, and closed the Straits of Tiran (22 May). p. 221 (file not included in this release)

Which territories did Israel take in June 1967?::Sinai, Gaza, the West Bank including East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. p. 223 (file not included in this release)

What happened to Egypt’s air force on 5 June 1967?::188 Israeli jets destroyed 388 Egyptian aircraft. pp. 222–223 (file not included in this release)

Part VIII — The Ascendancy of the Shah, 1967–1978

What were the Three No’s, and where were they declared?::“No peace, no recognition and no negotiation with Israel,” at the Khartoum summit, August 1967. pp. 227–228 (file not included in this release)

What did UN Security Council Resolution 242 (22 November 1967) establish?::The formula of peace in return for land. p. 229 (file not included in this release)

Why did the battle of Karameh (March 1968) matter?::Fatah’s stand against an Israeli raid made Arafat PLO chairman by February 1969. p. 232 (file not included in this release)

When did the Baath take power in Iraq?::17 July 1968; Saddam staged a coup within the coup two weeks later. p. 229 (file not included in this release)

Whom did Qaddafi overthrow, and when?::King Idris, on 1 September 1969. p. 230 (file not included in this release)

What was Black September?::In September 1970, after the Dawson’s Field hijackings, King Hussein’s army crushed the PLO; about 10,000 Palestinians died. pp. 236–237 (file not included in this release)

When did Nasser die, and who took Syria two months later?::28 September 1970; Hafez al-Assad seized power in November. pp. 237–240 (file not included in this release)

Who founded the UAE, and when?::Sheikh Zayed, on 2 December 1971. p. 242 (file not included in this release)

What did Sadat do in July 1972?::He expelled the Soviet advisers. p. 239 (file not included in this release)

When did the Yom Kippur War begin, and who launched it?::6 October 1973, by Egypt and Syria; 100,000 Egyptian troops crossed the canal. p. 249 (file not included in this release)

How much did Iran’s oil income rise after 1973?::From $4.6 billion (1973–74) to $17.8 billion (1975). pp. 251–252 (file not included in this release)

What did the shah trade away in the Algiers Agreement (6 March 1975)?::He abandoned the Iraqi Kurds in return for half of the Shatt al-Arab. p. 252 (file not included in this release)

When did Lebanon’s civil war begin?::13 April 1975. p. 257 (file not included in this release)

When did Sadat fly to Jerusalem?::19 November 1977, months after Begin won Israel’s election (17 May). p. 259 (file not included in this release) · p. 261 (file not included in this release)

What did Camp David (September 1978) deliver for Egypt, and what did it leave unresolved?::All of Sinai; Palestinian self-government was promised through a transition Begin had no intention of delivering. p. 262 (file not included in this release)

Part IX — The Awakening — The Imam and the Islamists, 1978–1988

What happened in Tehran on 8 September 1978?::The shah declared martial law and soldiers fired on protesters, killing eighty-three; Khomeini claimed 4,000. p. 266 (file not included in this release)

When did the shah leave Iran, and when did Khomeini return?::16 January and 1 February 1979. p. 267 (file not included in this release)

When was the Egypt–Israel peace treaty signed?::26 March 1979, at the White House. p. 268 (file not included in this release)

When did Saddam become president of Iraq?::16 July 1979, followed by a purge of the Baath leadership. p. 272 (file not included in this release)

What happened in Tehran on 4 November 1979?::Students seized the US embassy. p. 269 (file not included in this release)

What happened at the Grand Mosque in Mecca in November 1979?::Salafi extremists seized it (20 November) and hailed a Mahdi; it was retaken with hundreds dead and sixty-three executions. pp. 270–271 (file not included in this release)

When did Iraq invade Iran, and roughly how many died in the war?::22 September 1980; around 700,000 by 1988. p. 273 (file not included in this release) · p. 275 (file not included in this release)

What did Israel destroy on 7 June 1981?::Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, the first application of the Begin Doctrine. p. 284 (file not included in this release)

Who killed Sadat, and when?::Lieutenant Khalid al-Islambouli and fellow jihadists, at a parade on 6 October 1981. p. 277 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Hama in February 1982?::Rifaat al-Assad’s forces killed as many as 40,000. p. 278 (file not included in this release)

What followed Israel’s invasion of Lebanon (6 June 1982)?::The PLO left Beirut for Tunis in August; Bachir Gemayel was assassinated on 14 September, followed by Sabra and Shatila. pp. 281–282 (file not included in this release)

What did Hezbollah’s suicide bombers do in October 1983?::Killed 241 US Marines and 58 French paratroopers in Beirut. p. 283 (file not included in this release)

What triggered the First Intifada, and what was founded the same night?::An Israeli army truck killed four Gazan workers (8 December 1987); Hamas was founded that night. pp. 286–287 (file not included in this release)

Part X — The Americans, 1988–2004

What was the Anfal campaign?::Saddam’s 1988 campaign against the Kurds: 4,000 villages destroyed, about 180,000 murdered; Halabja gassed on 16 March. p. 293 (file not included in this release)

Who succeeded Khomeini, and when did he die?::Ali Khamenei; Khomeini died in June 1989. pp. 294–295 (file not included in this release)

When did Iraq invade Kuwait, and when was Kuwait liberated?::2 August 1990; 28 February 1991. pp. 296–297 (file not included in this release)

What did Algeria’s cancelled election (January 1992) lead to?::The “Black Decade,” which killed about 150,000. pp. 303–304 (file not included in this release)

What did the Oslo agreements (13 September 1993) establish?::Mutual recognition between Israel and the PLO, a Palestinian Authority, and a five-year interim period before final-status talks. p. 301 (file not included in this release)

When did Jordan make peace with Israel?::October 1994. p. 302 (file not included in this release)

Who killed Rabin, and when?::Yigal Amir, a Jewish extremist, on 4 November 1995. p. 305 (file not included in this release)

Who succeeded Hafez al-Assad, and why was he not the first choice?::Bashar (June 2000); his elder brother Bassel, the intended heir, died in a car crash in 1994. p. 312 (file not included in this release)

What set off the Second Intifada?::Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount on 28 September 2000, after Camp David failed in July. pp. 313–314 (file not included in this release)

How many died on 9/11, and when did America invade Afghanistan?::2,977; 7 October 2001. p. 317 (file not included in this release)

When did the invasion of Iraq begin, and when did Baghdad fall?::20 March and 9 April 2003. p. 319 (file not included in this release)

What was CPA Order 1?::Bremer’s May 2003 de-Baathification order, followed by the dissolution of the army. p. 320 (file not included in this release)

Part XI — The Spring, 2005–2012

Who was killed on 14 February 2005, and what followed?::Rafik Hariri; the Cedar Revolution forced Syrian troops out of Lebanon by April. p. 328 (file not included in this release)

How many seats did Hamas win in January 2006?::74 of 132. p. 329 (file not included in this release)

How long was the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah war, and what did Resolution 1701 demand?::Thirty-four days; Hezbollah’s disarmament, which never happened. pp. 328–329 (file not included in this release)

When did Hamas take control of Gaza?::June 2007, after the Battle of Gaza. p. 330 (file not included in this release)

What was the “Napkin Map”?::Olmert’s final offer to Abbas, September 2008. p. 331 (file not included in this release)

What triggered the Tunisian uprising?::Mohamed Bouazizi, a vegetable seller in Sidi Bouzid, set himself on fire on 17 December 2010; Ben Ali fled on 14 January 2011. pp. 337–338 (file not included in this release)

How long did Tahrir Square take to remove Mubarak?::Eighteen days, 25 January to 11 February 2011. pp. 338–340 (file not included in this release)

Whose troops crushed Bahrain’s protests in March 2011?::Saudi and Emirati troops (from 14 March). p. 342 (file not included in this release)

Where did the Syrian uprising begin?::Daraa, March 2011. p. 340 (file not included in this release)

Where and when were bin Laden and Qaddafi killed?::Bin Laden in Abbottabad, 2 May 2011; Qaddafi at Sirte, 20 October 2011. p. 341 (file not included in this release) · p. 344 (file not included in this release)

Who won Egypt’s 2012 presidential election, and with what share?::Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, with 51.7 per cent. p. 344 (file not included in this release)

What happened at Ghouta on 21 August 2013?::Assad’s forces killed about 1,400 with sarin; Obama did not strike. p. 345 (file not included in this release)

Part XII — The Six Armies Empire — Iran’s Crescent, 2012–2023

What followed Sisi’s removal of Morsi in July 2013?::Security forces killed about 900 Brotherhood protesters in August; Sisi won 97 per cent in May 2014. p. 347 (file not included in this release)

How many jihadists took Mosul in June 2014, against how many troops?::About 1,500 routed 120,000 Iraqi troops. p. 351 (file not included in this release)

Where and when did Baghdadi declare the caliphate?::The Grand Mosque of Mosul, 29 June 2014. p. 351 (file not included in this release)

What did ISIS do at Sinjar in August 2014?::Killed about 12,000 Yazidis and enslaved 6,000 Yazidi women. p. 352 (file not included in this release)

Which city’s defence was called “the Kurdish Stalingrad”?::Kobani, 2014–15. p. 353 (file not included in this release)

When did the Saudi-led war in Yemen begin, and what triggered it?::March 2015, after the Houthis took Sanaa. p. 358 (file not included in this release)

When did Russia intervene in Syria?::September 2015, to save Assad. p. 353 (file not included in this release)

What did Erdoğan do after the failed coup of 15 July 2016?::Arrested 77,000 and dismissed 150,000. p. 348 (file not included in this release)

When did MBS become crown prince, and what began that month?::June 2017; the blockade of Qatar. p. 357 (file not included in this release) · p. 360 (file not included in this release)

Where was Khashoggi murdered, and when?::The Saudi consulate in Istanbul, October 2018. p. 358 (file not included in this release)

Who was killed by an American drone in Baghdad on 3 January 2020?::Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force. p. 361 (file not included in this release)

Which states signed the Abraham Accords in 2020?::Israel with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco. p. 361 (file not included in this release)

What sparked the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests?::The death of Mahsa Amini, September 2022. p. 362 (file not included in this release)

Who brokered the restoration of Saudi–Iranian relations in March 2023?::China. p. 363 (file not included in this release)

Part XIII — The October 7 Wars, 2023–2026

Who are the two sides in Sudan’s war (from 15 April 2023), and who leads each?::The army under General Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under Hemedti. p. 365 (file not included in this release)

Who said, eight days before 7 October, that the region was “quieter today than it has been in two decades”?::Jake Sullivan, on 29 September 2023. p. 370 (file not included in this release)

How many were killed and taken hostage on 7 October 2023?::About 1,139 killed and 251 taken hostage, including 30 children. p. 371 (file not included in this release)

When did Hezbollah open its “war of support,” and when did Israel invade Gaza?::8 October and 27 October 2023. p. 372 (file not included in this release)

What led to Iran’s first direct attack on Israel (April 2024)?::Israel’s strike on Iranian generals in Damascus. pp. 374–375 (file not included in this release)

Where was Haniyeh killed?::In Tehran, 31 July 2024. p. 375 (file not included in this release)

What happened to Hezbollah’s leadership in September 2024?::The pager attack (17 September), then Nasrallah’s killing in Beirut (27 September). pp. 375–376 (file not included in this release)

Where and when was Sinwar killed?::Rafah, 16 October 2024. p. 376 (file not included in this release)

When did Damascus fall, and to whom?::8 December 2024, to Ahmed al-Sharaa’s HTS; Assad fled to Moscow. p. 378 (file not included in this release)

What was the Twelve-Day War?::Israel’s Rising Lion strikes on Iran, 13–24 June 2025; on 22 June US B-2s hit Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. pp. 382–383 (file not included in this release)

What did the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire exchange?::The last twenty living hostages for 1,718 Palestinian prisoners. p. 384 (file not included in this release)

How many protesters does Montefiore estimate were killed in Iran on 8–9 January 2026?::Over 30,000 in two days. p. 386 (file not included in this release)

Level 2 — Causes and effects

flashcards/cauldron/causes

Each card asks why something happened or what it led to. The headings are the seven patterns from the main note’s Patterns that keep coming back; when you answer, name the pattern too.

1. Lose the battle, win the politics (and the reverse)

Why did Suez (1956) make Nasser stronger even though Egypt lost the fighting?::America and the USSR forced Britain, France and Israel to withdraw, so Nasser kept the canal and seemed to have beaten two empires. pp. 197–198 (file not included in this release)

Why did France lose Algeria after winning the Battle of Algiers?::Torture and reprisal won the battle but destroyed any remaining consent, and the war destabilized France itself; de Gaulle: “in decolonisation, the victory is to leave.” pp. 214–215 (file not included in this release)

Why did America’s three-week march to Baghdad (2003) turn into a loss of control over Iraq?::De-Baathification and the disbanding of the army created an insurgency and a sectarian war, and opened the way for Iran. pp. 319–322 (file not included in this release)

How did the 1973 war give Sadat a political victory?::The canal crossing restored Egyptian prestige → he could negotiate without humiliation → Kissinger engaged → peace traded for all of Sinai. pp. 249–251 (file not included in this release) · pp. 261–262 (file not included in this release)

Why did the Abdeen Palace incident (1942) backfire on Britain?::The tanks got Lampson the government he wanted, but the humiliation discredited Farouk and the parties and inspired the Free Officers, including Nasser and Sadat. pp. 154–155 (file not included in this release)

2. Patrons cannot control their clients

Why did the 1958 Iraqi revolution not deliver Iraq to Nasser?::Arif wanted to join the UAR at once, but Qasim had no intention of abdicating to Nasser; he purged Arif and the Baathists and made himself Sole Leader. pp. 205–206 (file not included in this release)

Why did Sadat expel the Soviet advisers in July 1972, and what did it show?::“No war could be fought while Soviet experts worked in Egypt”; 22,000 advisers bought Moscow influence, not obedience. The Soviets rearmed him anyway, and the Americans were impressed. p. 239 (file not included in this release)

How did Hamas’s independent decision on October 7 hurt its own backers?::It struck without telling Iran or Hezbollah, dragging them into a piecemeal “war of support” that exposed their networks to Israeli decapitation. p. 370 (file not included in this release) · p. 372 (file not included in this release) · pp. 375–376 (file not included in this release)

What is the built-in weakness of Iran’s militia network?::The partners give reach on the ground but act on their own interests and can drag Iran into wars it did not choose. p. 355 (file not included in this release)

3. Prestige is not power

Why was Sharif Hussein’s claim to be “King of the Arabs” hollow?::About 900,000 of 3 million Ottoman soldiers were Arabs and most stayed loyal; the Hashemite armies fielded barely 6,000 men each, and Allenby’s armies did the decisive fighting. pp. 86–89 (file not included in this release)

Why did Nasser’s prestige collapse in six days in 1967?::His standing rested on rhetoric and radio, while Amer’s army was unready (“Everything’s in tiptop shape”); on 5 June Israel destroyed 388 Egyptian aircraft. pp. 221–224 (file not included in this release)

How did Soleimani’s boast of “six armies” fare in 2024?::He claimed any enemy would “have to go through these six armies”; within months Israel killed Haniyeh, Nasrallah and Sinwar, and Assad fell in December. p. 355 (file not included in this release) · pp. 375–378 (file not included in this release)

Why did the Palestine revolt of 1936–39 leave Arab Palestinians weaker for 1948?::About 8,000 died, the leaders fled or feuded, and the elite split, while the Yishuv gained trained fighters (Wingate’s Night Squads) and stronger institutions. p. 146 (file not included in this release)

4. Unity slogans hide the question of who commands

Why did five Arab armies fail to win in 1948?::Each served its own government (Abdullah wanted the West Bank, Farouk regional leadership, Syria to block the Hashemites); no one commanded the whole, and Jordan and Egypt absorbed the land meant for a Palestinian state. pp. 168–173 (file not included in this release)

Why did the United Arab Republic break up in 1961?::Nasser demanded “total union or nothing,” dissolved Syrian parties and sent Amer and Sarraj to rule; Arab feeling could not settle who controlled the army, police and money, and Syrian officers seceded. pp. 201–202 (file not included in this release) · p. 208 (file not included in this release)

Why did ISIS and al-Nusra fight each other in 2013–14?::They shared a doctrine but not a commander: Jolani, Baghdadi’s own envoy, swore allegiance to al-Qaeda instead; ISIS expelled al-Nusra and took Raqqa in January 2014. pp. 350–351 (file not included in this release)

Why did the 2006 Palestinian election lead to civil war in Gaza?::Hamas won the legislature while Fatah kept the presidency and its own forces; neither would give up its gunmen, and the dispute ended in the Battle of Gaza (June 2007). pp. 329–330 (file not included in this release)

5. Leaders get trapped by their own tough talk

Why did Nasser close the Straits of Tiran in May 1967 when he knew it meant war?::After the UAR’s collapse and the Yemen quagmire, and with Syria and the Palestinians accusing him of cowardice, backing down would have looked weak; he called war “100 per cent certain.” pp. 218–221 (file not included in this release)

Why did Saddam pretend to have weapons he had destroyed?::To deter Iran and his internal enemies; the bluff helped bring the 2003 invasion. p. 318 (file not included in this release)

Why did Arafat refuse the Camp David terms in 2000?::He saw the talks as about sovereignty and Jerusalem, not percentages, and feared a concession on the holy sites would cost him his life. pp. 313–314 (file not included in this release)

Why did King Hussein join Nasser on 30 May 1967, though he knew they would lose?::Staying out might have cost him “his crown if not his head”; he handed command of his army to Egypt and lost the West Bank and East Jerusalem. pp. 221–223 (file not included in this release)

6. One-man rule goes blind

Why could Nasser not stop the military disaster of 1967?::Amer ran the army and police as his own fiefdom (“I can’t continue as president while Amer actually rules”), so Nasser got reassurances instead of the truth. p. 218 (file not included in this release) · p. 221 (file not included in this release)

How did the shah’s modernization create his own gravediggers?::Land reform and education produced urban migrants and an educated middle class, but he gave them no political voice, so many turned to Marxism or to Khomeini. pp. 253–254 (file not included in this release)

How did the shah show he had stopped hearing bad news?::When Alam warned “we can’t even guarantee water in the capital,” the shah replied, “The only thing wrong with the economy is the extraordinary speed it’s growing.” p. 253 (file not included in this release)

Why did Saddam invade Kuwait expecting no American response?::He lived among flatterers who told him America would not fight or would collapse under casualties. pp. 296–297 (file not included in this release)

7. Alliances cross the sectarian line

What agreement did Faisal sign with Weizmann in January 1919?::An agreement to encourage Jewish immigration into Palestine while protecting its Arab inhabitants, conditional on Arab independence. p. 99 (file not included in this release)

Why was Alawite-led Syria allied with Khomeini’s Iran in the 1980s?::Both were enemies of Saddam’s Baathist Iraq; shared interests outweighed doctrine. p. 280 (file not included in this release)

Which unlikely suppliers armed Iran against Saddam?::Israel, and the United States through Iran–Contra, even while America also helped Iraq. pp. 284–285 (file not included in this release)

What did the Abraham Accords (2020) signal, in Montefiore’s reading?::Israel normalized with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, “a step towards a future in which Israel was just one of the moderate Middle Eastern states.” p. 361 (file not included in this release)

Who restored Saudi–Iranian relations in 2023, and what does it show?::China; Riyadh and Tehran, rivals across the Sunni–Shiite line, chose de-escalation when it suited them. p. 363 (file not included in this release)

Monthly essay prompts

One Part a month, in book order, starting in November 2026; the cycle takes fourteen months and then repeats. Write an answer outline from memory, then open the fold and compare.

MonthPart
Nov 2026Part I
Dec 2026Part II
Jan 2027Part III
Feb 2027Part IV
Mar 2027Part V
Apr 2027Part VI
May 2027Part VII
Jun 2027Part VIII
Jul 2027Part IX
Aug 2027Part X
Sep 2027Part XI
Oct 2027Part XII
Nov 2027Part XIII
Dec 2027Conclusion

Nov 2026 · Part I — The Middle East of Abdulaziz, 1900–1906

1. Reconstruct the different forms of authority operating in Ottoman lands, Egypt, Persia, and the Gulf.

2. How could modernization strengthen autocracy and generate its opponents simultaneously?

3. Use one Gulf example to explain local agency without denying imperial inequality.

4. What evidence complicates both Ottoman nostalgia and the idea of a fully formed pan-Arab state-in-waiting?

5. Apply the distinction between shared interests and shared objectives to the kaiser, Herzl, and Abdulhamid.

Dec 2026 · Part II — Holy World War, 1906–1917

1. Reconstruct the chain from the prewar imperial crises to the Three Pashas’ wartime government.

2. How did the treatment of internal populations become part of the regime’s war strategy?

3. Which evidence limits an account of the Arab Revolt as a unified region-wide uprising?

4. Why is Sykes–Picot an inadequate stand-in for the entire postwar settlement?

5. Compare the Balfour and Hussein–McMahon promises using wording, purpose, expectation, and enforcement.

Jan 2027 · Part III — The Mandatories, 1917–1939

1. Reconstruct why the Sèvres settlement and Faisal’s Syrian kingdom have different fates.

2. Why does the Iraqi revolt encourage Britain to prefer a client monarchy?

3. Use Turkish, Iranian, or Saudi evidence to distinguish modernization from liberalization.

4. What qualifications are needed when describing Syria or Iraq as newly created states?

5. Compare a minority’s position under imperial protection and under a consolidating national government.

Feb 2027 · Part IV — The Second World War — The Battle of the Middle East, 1939–1945

1. Explain why this Part’s causal story begins before the formal outbreak of the world war.

2. How does the Palestine revolt change the relative preparation of the two communities?

3. Use Abdeen Palace to distinguish military effectiveness from political consequences.

4. Which cases prevent treating Arab wartime alignments as a single response?

5. Compare Iran’s forced wartime transition with Britain’s management of Farouk.

Mar 2027 · Part V — New States, 1945–1948

1. Reconstruct the separate phases from British withdrawal to the armistices.

2. How do divergent Arab objectives affect military coordination and Palestinian statehood?

3. Which civilian examples show how local violence can produce wider displacement?

4. What does Montefiore claim about Plan Dalet, and what remains beyond this summary’s verification?

5. Explain why an armistice, state declaration, and durable peace are three different achievements.

Apr 2027 · Part VI — The Days of Nasser, 1948–1960

1. Reconstruct the steps by which the Free Officers’ coalition becomes Nasser’s personal regime.

2. Why does Suez increase Nasser’s stature despite Egypt’s military losses?

3. Use the UAR to explain the institutional problems hidden by a slogan of unity.

4. What is distinctive about Montefiore’s interpretation of 1953 Iran, and what does it not establish?

5. Compare the functions of radio prestige, an intelligence service, and a superpower arms agreement.

May 2027 · Part VII — The Reversal — The Crisis of Pan-Arabism, 1960–1967

1. Reconstruct the sequence from Syrian secession and Yemen to the 1967 crisis.

2. How do domestic and inter-Arab rivalries make de-escalation harder?

3. What does Algeria show about the difference between winning battles and maintaining a political order?

4. Which parts of the 1967 outcome were contingent rather than predetermined by ideology?

5. Apply the idea of a reputational trap to one Egyptian, Jordanian, or Israeli decision.

Jun 2027 · Part VIII — The Ascendancy of the Shah, 1967–1978

1. Explain how 1967 changes both Israeli politics and independent Palestinian organization.

2. Why does Black September transfer a state-sovereignty problem from Jordan toward Lebanon?

3. Reconstruct Sadat’s connection between limited war, prestige, American engagement, and peace.

4. Which evidence complicates a uniform account of the oil producers’ strategy?

5. Compare the shah’s modernization with his inability to accommodate the groups it helps create.

Jul 2027 · Part IX — The Awakening — The Imam and the Islamists, 1978–1988

1. Reconstruct how Khomeini converts a diverse opposition into a clerically dominated regime.

2. Why does Saddam’s attempted exploitation of Iranian weakness strengthen Khomeini politically?

3. What evidence from Lebanon shows the limits of remaking a country through a military campaign?

4. Which alliances challenge an exclusively sectarian explanation of this period?

5. Compare the organizational opportunities created by occupation, imprisonment, and foreign-sponsored warfare.

Aug 2027 · Part X — The Americans, 1988–2004

1. Reconstruct the different objectives of the 1991 coalition and the 2003 invasion.

2. Why does Saddam repeatedly misread American intentions despite having experienced defeat?

3. Which evidence explains how Oslo could be a real opportunity and a structurally vulnerable process?

4. What qualifications are needed before reducing Camp David to a dispute over land percentages?

5. Apply the distinction between defeating a regime and governing its former territory to Iraq.

Sep 2027 · Part XI — The Spring, 2005–2012

1. Explain how Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon can coexist with increased Hezbollah power.

2. Why does the Palestinian election fail to produce an accepted governing settlement?

3. Which evidence from Olmert–Abbas negotiations shows why a map alone cannot deliver peace?

4. Compare the transition mechanisms in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, and Syria without assuming identical causes.

5. Apply the mobilization–organization distinction to the political aftermath of a successful protest.

Oct 2027 · Part XII — The Six Armies Empire — Iran’s Crescent, 2012–2023

1. Reconstruct why post-uprising politics produces different orders in Egypt, Türkiye, Iraq, and Syria.

2. How does ISIS’s conduct help create the coalition that destroys its territorial project?

3. Use Kobani or Mosul to explain cooperation without a shared long-term political aim.

4. Distinguish Montefiore’s criticism of the Iran agreement’s regional scope from a claim about its nuclear provisions.

5. Compare Iranian militia networks and Gulf financial-diplomatic networks as forms of influence with different vulnerabilities.

Nov 2027 · Part XIII — The October 7 Wars, 2023–2026

1. Reconstruct the connection between Sudan’s rival armed institutions and their external economic relationships.

2. How does the patron–partner problem help explain the widening consequences of October 7?

3. Which evidence distinguishes Israel’s military successes from an agreed political future for Gaza?

4. What kinds of claims in this final Part require renewed verification before use in an argument note?

5. Apply the difference between destroying a command structure and establishing legitimate government to post-Assad Syria.

Dec 2027 · Conclusion — The Garden amidst the Flames

1. Reconstruct the distinction between greater regional agency and a more peaceful regional order.

2. What mechanisms does Montefiore propose for the success of particular monarchies, beyond the label “monarchy”?

3. How does Ibn Arabi’s example challenge the idea that extremism is uniquely authentic?

4. Which recent outcomes does the author explicitly leave uncertain?

5. What institutional evidence would strengthen or weaken the book’s preference for pragmatic coexistence?