⬅️ Back to 60.10 Argumentation · Sister MOCs: Debate Playbook (MOC) · Argument Anatomy (MOC) · Fallacies & Bad Faith (MOC) · Rhetoric & Persuasion (MOC) · Argumentation Library (MOC)
Why a valid argument still loses. How people actually assemble beliefs, what holds those beliefs in place, and what — if anything — moves them.
The Model
- Theory of Mind — the index note: how people arrive at conclusions and modify beliefs
- People and their Beliefs — the Destiny-derived working set
- Predictive Model — anticipating what someone will say next from what they already believe
The Mechanisms
Each of these is a reason a person won’t update.
- Social Incentives Dictate Beliefs — the belief is doing social work, not epistemic work
- Constellation of Beliefs — beliefs come in bundles; attacking one triggers the whole cluster
- Humans are not Truth-Seeking Machines — the baseline assumption to argue from
- Normative Confusion with Applied Positions — mistaking a policy disagreement for a values disagreement (see also Moral Dodgeball in Debate Pervertry)
- Skeptics Rarely Are — selective skepticism as identity
- Aesthetic vs Function — preferring the shape of a position to its consequences
Cognitive Bias
- Why Smart People Get Things Wrong - Daniel Kahneman and Sam Harris — why confidence can imitate knowledge; when intuition is earned; why institutions need external checks
- Replication Crisis — how researcher degrees of freedom, selective publication, weak power, and misconduct can turn persuasive findings into unstable evidence
- Cognitive Bias — the 20-bias reference note
- The load-bearing four → Cognitive Bias > 1. **Confirmation Bias** · Cognitive Bias > 7. **Framing Effect** · Cognitive Bias > 13. **Ingroup Bias** · Cognitive Bias > 19. **Fundamental Attribution Error**
- Cognitive Bias > 6. **Dunning-Kruger Effect** · Cognitive Bias > 8. **Sunk Cost Fallacy** · Cognitive Bias > 17. **Overconfidence Bias**
- Critical Thinking > 4. Avoiding Barriers (Biases and Fallacies)
- Where bias becomes fallacy → Fallacies & Bad Faith (MOC)
Defending Your Own Mind
- Critical Thinking — the discipline, especially Critical Thinking > Step 5 — Uncover Assumptions and Critical Thinking > Now apply the Standards (the real engine)
- Skepticism 101 — the tools of skepticism
- Internal Critique — test a position by its own standards before you import yours
- Argumentation & Influence NOTES — argue to learn; accept your own fallibility first
- Mill’s rule: you don’t know your own side until you can state theirs in its most persuasive form → Argumentation & Influence NOTES
Pressure, Shame & Coercion
- Argumentation & Influence NOTES > Coercion — shame and coercion operating through “virtual causation”
- Gender, Conformity, and Affiliation Under Social Pressure — why visible agreement can reflect sanctions, affiliation, or male public nonconformity rather than private belief; includes preference falsification and groupthink boundaries.
- Cross-folder → 60.17 Influence & Negotiation · Emotional Manipulation · Common Manipulation Tactics · Psychological Inoculation Theory · Demoralization
Case File
- Andrew Wilson — a full worked study of one interlocutor: the presuppositional move, the rights/might argument, the “Loop of Pain,” and the counter-questions on definition
- Andrew Wilson Loop of Pain
Base index
Argumentation.base (file not included in this release)